Technology & Media  Time.com

Netflix’s Gain Is HBO’s Loss in Subscriber Wars

According to a new report from the NPD Group, streaming services have seen a 4% rise in subscribers over the past two years

By Maya Rhodan @m_rhodanJan. 20, 2014

Read more: Netflix Adds Subscribers, HBO and Showtime Lose Them | TIME.com http://business.time.com/2014/01/20/netflixs-gain-is-hbos-loss-in-subscriber-wars/#ixzz2r2aOqyBt

People can’t get enough Netflix. According to a new report, the streaming video service and others like it have been gaining subscribers as premium pay networks like HBO and Showtime have been losing them.
The NPD Group, a global information company, says over the past two years, the number of households subscribing to premium networks has fallen by 6%. Online streaming subscriptions, however, have risen by 4%, according to their report.
According to the report, in August 2013, 32% of American households paid for premium networks like HBO or Showtime and 27% subscribed to on-demand digital services. While Netflix is the most widely used service, Hulu Plus and Amazon Prime are gaining in popularity.
“It’s fair to say … that some of the shift that you’re seeing is probably caused by Netflix,” Russ Crupnick, a senior vice president of the NPD Group told the Los Angeles Times. “Some of this could be caused by the economy. It could be people looking at their cable bills and saying, ‘I can’t afford this.’”

Oscar Nominations are in....

The Oscar nominations are in.  Lets see how I did!

Best Picture:

My Picks: "12 Years A Slave," "American Hustle," "Blue Jasmine," "Captain Phillips", "Dallas Buyers Club", "Gravity," ""Fruitvale Station", "Nebraska," "Philomena," "The Wolf of Wall Street"

OSCAR:  "American Hustle," "Captain Phillips," "Dallas Buyers Club," "Gravity," "Her," "Nebraska," "Philomena," "12 Years a Slave" and "The Wolf of Wall Street."

*They only nominated 9 films this year.  I missed "Her" and my wild card was "Fruitvale Station". I think this will be a race between "American Hustle" and "12 Years a Slave".

Best Director:

My Picks: Alfonso Cuaron ("Gravity"), Alexander Payne ("Nebraska"), Steve McQueen ("12 Years A Slave"), David O. Russell ("American Hustle"), Martin Scorsese ("The Wolf of Wall Street")

OSCAR: Alfonso Cuaron ("Gravity"), McQueen ("12 Years a Slave"), Alexander Payne ("Nebraska"), Russell ("American Hustle") and Scorsese ("The Wolf of Wall Street")

*Nailed it!  Alfonso Cuaron won the Golden Globe, and I think he is the front runner here.

Best Actor:

My Picks: Christian Bale ("American Hustle"), Leonardo DiCaprio ("The Wolf of Wall Street"), Chiwetel Ejiofor ("12 Years A Slave"), Tom Hanks ("Captain Phillips"), Matthew McConaughey ("Dallas Buyers Club")

OSCAR: Christian Bale ("American Hustle"), Bruce Dern ("Nebraska"), DiCaprio ("The Wolf of Wall Street"), Ejiofor ("12 Years a Slave") and Matthew McConaughey ("Dallas Buyers Club").

*There was no love for Tom Hanks this year.  Bruce Dern takes his place.

Best Actress:

My Picks: Amy Adams ("American Hustle"), Cate Blanchett ("Blue Jasmine"), Sandra Bullock ("Gravity"), Judi Dench ("Philomena"), Emma Thompson ("Saving Mr. Banks")

OSCAR: Amy Adams ("American Hustle"), Cate Blanchett ("Blue Jasmine"), Sandra Bullock ("Gravity"), Judi Dench ("Philomena") and Meryl Streep ("August: Osage County").

*I missed Meryl Streep. This is her 18 nomination!  She is the most nominated movie star in Academy history, with Katherine Hepburn and Jack Nicholson trailing behind with 12 nominations each.  Streep has won three Oscars - Best Actress for "Sophie's Choice" (1981) and "The Iron Lady" (2011) and Best Supporting Actress for "Kramer vs. Kramer"  (1979).  I don't think this will be her year for #4. Blanchett and Bullock have to be the front runners, with Amy Adams coming on strong.

Best Supporting Actor:

My Picks:  Barkhad Abdi ("Captain Phillips"), Jonah Hill ("The Wolf of Wall Street"), Michael Fassbender ("12 Years A Slave"), James Gandolfini ("Enough Said"), Jared Leto ("Dallas Buyers Club")

OSCAR: Barkhad Abdi ("Captain Phillips"), Cooper ("American Hustle"), Fassbender ("12 Years a Slave"), Hill ("The Wolf of Wall Street") and Jared Leto ("Dallas Buyers Club").

*I picked the late James Gandolfini because I still can't believe he is gone. Cooper takes his place.

Best Supporting Actress:

My Picks: Jennifer Lawrence ("American Hustle"), Lupita Nyong'o ("12 Years A Slave"), Julia Roberts ("August: Osage County"), June Squibb ("Nebraska"), Oprah Winfrey ("Lee Daniels' The Butler")

OSCAR: Sally Hawkins ("Blue Jasmine"), Lawrence ("American Hustle"), Nyong'o ("12 Years a Slave"), Julia Roberts ("August: Osage County") and June Squibb ("Nebraska").

*So why did I pick Oprah Winfrey?  I didn't even love "The Butler"!  Sally Hawkins takes her place. Should be an interesting race.

Overall, no huge surprises...

Oscar Nominees Prediction 2014

On Thursday morning, 1/16/14, the Academy Awards Nominations will be announced.  The following are my predictions based upon the films I have seen, the things I have read, and past years experience.  I admit I have not seen all the films yet, so some of this is based only on other information I have read about these films.  If I had to rank the movies I have seen so far in a list of my top 5 films of 2013, they would be as follows:

1. 12 Years A Slave
2. Gravity
3. American Hustle
4. Captain Phillips
5. The Wolf of Wall Street

My Predictions:

BEST PICTURE: "12 Years A Slave," "American Hustle," "Blue Jasmine," "Captain Phillips", "Dallas Buyers Club", "Gravity," ""Fruitvale Station", "Nebraska," "Philomena," "The Wolf of Wall Street"

BEST DIRECTOR: Alfonso Cuaron ("Gravity"), Alexander Payne ("Nebraska"), Steve McQueen ("12 Years A Slave"), David O. Russell ("American Hustle"), Martin Scorsese ("The Wolf of Wall Street")

BEST ACTOR: Christian Bale ("American Hustle"), Leonardo DiCaprio ("The Wolf of Wall Street"), Chiwetel Ejiofor ("12 Years A Slave"), Tom Hanks ("Captain Phillips"), Matthew McConaughey ("Dallas Buyers Club")

BEST ACTRESS: Amy Adams ("American Hustle"), Cate Blanchett ("Blue Jasmine"), Sandra Bullock ("Gravity"), Judi Dench ("Philomena"), Emma Thompson ("Saving Mr. Banks")

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:  Barkhad Abdi ("Captain Phillips"), Jonah Hill ("The Wolf of Wall Street"), Michael Fassbender ("12 Years A Slave"), James Gandolfini ("Enough Said"), Jared Leto ("Dallas Buyers Club")

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Jennifer Lawrence ("American Hustle"), Lupita Nyong'o ("12 Years A Slave"), Julia Roberts ("August: Osage County"), June Squibb ("Nebraska"), Oprah Winfrey ("Lee Daniels' The Butler")

Do you agree?  Leave comments...

Today in Television History

1952 - NBC's "Today" show premiered.  
1972 - NBC-TV debuted "Sanford & Son."
1976 - "Bionic Woman" debuted on ABC.

"Is TV still TV?"

TV, We Hardly Knew You...

The current state of television programming is at an interesting crossroad.  Before we can look at where we are, let's take a moment to remember where we came from.  I am only looking at television in the U.S. and not the history of TV for the entire world.  In 1950 in the U.S., there were 3,880,000 households with a TV, or 9% of American homes.  By 1951, just one year, that number triples to 10,320,000 or 23.5%. In 1960, it grows to 45,750,000 or 87.1%, and by the late 1970s (1978 to be exact), that number hits 98% or 72,900,000 homes.   (These numbers are from the website  Television History: The First 75 Years )  We all know about the big three networks (CBS, NBC, ABC), and those of us of a certain age remember when we were lucky to have a TV that could get all three networks, as well as the fledgling PBS. In the 1970s, cable and satellite TV created a programming boom, and channel numbers exploded to one day include such specific programming as the Sci-Fi Channel and the Golf Channel.  In August of 2013, Sci-Fi, now the SyFy channel,  could be watched in 97,447,000 American households (85.33% of households with television). As of 2012, HBO, a "premium" cable service with additional cost to subscribe, reached approximately 28 million pay television subscribers in the United States.

So enough with the numbers. Television is an institution that is in almost ever home in America. The rapidly changing technology has seen the change from "over-the-air" network reception, to cable and satellite, to digital, to the Internet.  We now have a mix of programming systems, from advertising supported (the networks and cable channels), to subscriber based channels. I know you are thinking "but you have left something out of the mix", and that is the new model of distribution that doesn't need broadcast or cable, just an Internet connection and a device to connect. And what service is now pushing this change in Television?  Netflix of course, with Amazon and others adding to the mix. The Wall Street Journal reported in January of 2012 that Netflix had 24.4 million US subscribers. In October of 2013 that number was up to approximately 30 million, beating HBO's estimated 28.7 million ( see: Engadget article ).  Netflix gives subscribers access to a full season of shows at the same time, rather then the once-a-week model of network TV.  The old "water-cooler" moment when people would discuss a show, and ponder what would happen next week is changing to "binge viewing" where viewers watch most or all of the episodes in one sitting.  My experience with shows like House of Cards or Orange is the New Black is that people tend to discuss the series, but not individual episodes like they did in the weekly broadcast format. Viewing is also increasingly not dependent on a broadcast schedule.  House of Cards can be watched any time, day or night, at the viewers schedule.  Technology has been moving us in this direction since we could "time shift" shows by taping them on our VCR to watch later.  Now that VHS is dead,  DVR's or "on-demand"are the new playback methods. Technology marches ahead.

These changes bring us to that question "is TV still TV?".  Is the network broadcast model dead or dying? Many Internet writers say it is, but I remember when high definition was just about to happen, and that was in the mid 1980s. It took at least another 15 years for it to actually reach consumers.  While the network model may be dying, I think the funeral services are a tad premature.  Change in this industry is not quick, the ship steers slowly, and sometimes it can't avoid the oncoming iceberg.  As long as network shows continue to make money from advertising, they will not disappear. Viewing numbers for the big three are down and falling, but the revenues generated are not.   For now, all the TV models are coexisting, but change is on the horizon.  As Chance the Gardener says in Being There, "As long as the roots are not severed, all is well. And all will be well in the garden." But watch those roots closely!

For further reading, check out  ITS NOT TV, ITS NETFLIX  by William Proctor.

Welcome to my Blog!

It has recently been said by many that we are currently experiencing a renaissance in television programming ( see a Blog by Josh Hawkins ).  What you will find here in the coming months are my thoughts and musings about the state-of-the-art of production, and why and how it is changing.  I hope we can explore many topics and ideas here, and that any of you will feel free to jump into the discussions. For now, welcome to Strange Interludes.  I hope to see you here again soon.